Course Description

The course is broadly divided into 3 modules:

  • Module 1 Review of Probability
  • Module 2 Random Number Generation
  • Module 3 Random Processes

Course Syllabus

Review of basic probability: Random variables and random vectors, Classical Inequalities and limit theorems

Random Number Generation; Generation of Random Variables: Inverse Transform method, Acceptance- rejection method, Variance Reduction methods: Control Variate, Conditioning, Importance Sampling; Uncertainty, Entropy.

Random Processes: Definition and classification of random processes, Autocorrelation and properties, Random process through LTI systems, Bernoulli processes, Markov Chains (MCs): Preliminaries, Discrete-time MC: Transition Probability Matrix, Classification of states, Chapman-Kolmogorov Equation, Limiting & stationary Distributions, Ergodic MC; Continuous time MC: Poisson Process, Weiner process, Birth and Death Processes; Application and Case Studies.

Course Logistics

  • Schedule: Slot D, 9:00 am - 9:55 am Thursday, 10:00 am - 10:55 am Friday, 11:00 am - 11:55 am Monday
  • Venue: 5103, Core 5.

Course Evaluation

  • Attendance: 10%
  • Quizzes: 30%
  • Mid semester exam: 30%
  • End semester exam: 30%

Some references (not an exhaustive list)

  • Ross, S.M., 2022. Simulation. Academic Press.
  • Ross, S.M., 1995. Stochastic processes. John Wiley & Sons.
  • Bertsekas, D. and Tsitsiklis, J.N., 2008. Introduction to probability (Vol. 1). Athena Scientific.
  • Prof. Dootika Vats notes on Statistical Computing
  • Blitzstein, J.K., and Hwang J., 2019. Introduction to probability. Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Topics Covered during the weeks

Lecture Date Topic Resources R codes
1 4-Jan-2024
  • First Handout
2 8-Jan-2024
  • Review of Probability: Random variables: probabilities of events; expectation; independence; normal distribution; change of variables; lognormal distribution; exponential families.
3 11-Jan-2024
  • Review of Probability continued: Moment generating functions and related theorems; Weak Law of Large numbers (WLLN); Central limit theorem (CLT)
Robert G. Gallager's notes
4 12-Jan-2024
  • Proof of the CLT; Monte Carlo Simulations: Introduction; Some examples: Matching problem; Time until HH vs HT; Solving for an integral
5 18-Jan-2024
  • Pseudorandom number generation; Generating from U(0,1); Multiplicative congruential method; Mixed congruential method; Universality of Uniforms.
6 19-Jan-2024
  • Quiz 1
  • Random number generation from Discrete distributions: Inverse Transform method; Examples: Bernoulli, Poisson
7 1-Feb-2024
  • Random number generation from Discrete distributions: Acceptance Rejection method
8 2-Feb-2024
  • Random number generation from Discrete distributions: Acceptance Rejection method example; Composition method; Zero Inflated Poisson Distribution
9 5-Feb-2024
  • Cauchy distribution; Gamma distribution
  • Random number generation from Continuous distributions: Inverse Transform method; when it works and when it does not work.
10 7-Feb-2024
  • Random number generation from Continuous distributions: Accept-Reject method.
11 8-Feb-2024
  • Random number generation from Continuous distributions: Accept-Reject method: Examples
12 9-Feb-2024
  • AR sampler for Normal distribution
  • Sampling from a circle
13 12-Feb-2024
  • Box-Muller Transformation Method
  • Ratio of Uniforms Method
14 15-Feb-2024
  • Ratio of Uniforms Method Continued
15 16-Feb-2024
  • Choosing proposals for AR sampler
  • Choosing parameters for proposals
16 21-Feb-2024
  • Useful relationships between different families of distributions
  • Sampling from Mixture distributions: Mixture of Normals; Zero Inflated Gamma distribution
17 22-Feb-2024
  • Sampling from Multidimensional Distributions
  • Saming from Multivariate Normal Distribution
18 23-Feb-2024
  • Importance Sampling
  • Example: Moments of Gamma distribution
19 6-March-2024
  • Importance Sampling continued
  • Optimal Importance proposals
  • Example: Moments of Gamma distribution
20 7-March-2024
21 8-March-2024
  • Introduction to Stochastic Processes
  • Bernoulli Process
22 11-March-2024
23 14-March-2024
  • Bernoulli Process continued
  • How many jobs arrived in a particular time period?
  • Given the number of jobs, how much time did it take or them to arrive?
  • Memorylessness property
24 15-March-2024
  • Splitting a Bernoulli Process
  • Merging two independent Bernoulli Processes
  • Example: Mosquito bite in a rainforest
  • Poisson Approximation to Binomial
25 20-March-2024
  • Poisson Process
  • Example: Emails in your inbox
  • Time it takes for the kth arrial
26 21-March-2024
  • Memorylessness Property of Exponentials
  • Memorylessness and Fresh start property
  • Interarrival times
  • Merging Poisson Processes
27 26-March-2024
  • Summary of results: Bernoulii process & Poisson process
  • Example: Catching fish
  • Example: Burnout of a light bulb
  • Thinning of a Poisson Process
28 27-March-2024
  • Simulating a Poisson process
  • Conditioning
29 28-March-2024
  • Quiz 4
  • Discussion of Mid semester paper
30 1-April-2024
  • Markov Chains
  • Example: Checkout counter in a supermarket
  • States; Transition probability graph; Transition probability matrix
31 3-April-2024
  • Examples of Markov Chains
  • Transition probabilities for larger time scales
  • A key recursion; example
32 5-April-2024
  • nth step transition matrix
  • Chapman-Kolmogorov Relationship
  • accessibile states; communicate; communication is an equivalence relation
  • Classification of states: reccurent and transient
33 8-April-2024
  • Communication classes; example
  • Irreducibility
  • First passage time
  • Classification of states: reccurent and transient
  • Periodicity
34 9-April-2024
  • Periodicity
  • Example
  • Steady State Convergence Theorem
35 10-April-2024
  • Quiz 5
36 12-April-2024
  • Steady state probabilities
  • Steady state convergence theorem
  • Example
  • Balance equations; Visiting frequency interpretation
37 17-April-2024
  • Birth Death Process
  • What happens in the long run?; Special cases
38 19-April-2024
  • Simple random walk
  • Properties; example
39 20-April-2024
  • Quiz 6
  • Feedback
40 22-April-2024
  • Brownian motion: Defnition
  • Construction of Brownian Motion from simple symmetric random walk
  • Example